Tropical cyclones (TCs) affect countries in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropics every year causing significant humanitarian impacts and much damage to the natural environment. To reduce TC impacts on societies, early warning systems (EWS) are used to communicate the risk to the public. In 1999, the Climate Change and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones International Initiative (CCSHTCII) was established to enhance EWS for TCs in SH countries, with particular focus on support for small island developing states and least developed countries to provide effective public early warnings of TC risk. In this paper, recent activities of the CCSHTCII to strengthen TC EWS are presented. Using TC best track data from the SH TC historical data archive, the impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual and spatial variability of TC activity is examined. TC-ENSO relationships in the SH are analysed and used as a scientific basis for the production of TC season outlooks. Communication of TC early warnings through TC season outlooks is described, and recommendations for improving outlooks are provided.
Groundwater elevation fluctuation has been recognized as one mechanism causing temporal indoor air volatile organic chemical (VOC) impacts in vapor intrusion risk assessment guidance. For dissolved VOC sources, groundwater table fluctuation shortens/lengthens the transport pathway, and delivers dissolved contaminants to soils that are alternating between water saturated and variably saturated conditions, thereby enhancing volatilization potential. To date, this mechanism has not been assessed with field data, but enhanced VOC emission flux has been observed in lab-scale and modeling studies. This work evaluates the impact of groundwater elevation changes on VOC emission flux from a dissolved VOC plume into a house, supplemented with modeling results for cyclic groundwater elevation changes. Indoor air concentrations, air exchange rates, and depth to groundwater (DTW) were collected at the study house during an 86-d constant building underpressurization test. These data were used to calculate changes in trichloroethylene (TCE) emission flux to indoor air, during a period when DTW varied daily and seasonally from about 3.1 to 3.4 m below the building foundation (BF). Overall, TCE flux to indoor air varied by about 50% of the average, without any clear correlation to changes in DTW or its change rate. To complement the field study, TCE surface emission fluxes were simulated using a one-dimensional model (HYDRUS 1D) for conditions similar to the field site. Simulation results showed time-averaged surface TCE fluxes for cyclic water-table elevations were greater than for stationary water-table conditions at an equivalent time-averaged water-table position. The magnitudes of temporal TCE emission flux changes were generally less than 50% of the time-averaged flux, consistent with the field site observations. Simulation results also suggested that TCE emission flux changes due to groundwater fluctuation are likely to be significant at sites with shallow groundwater (e.g., < 0.5 m BF) and permeable soil types (e.g., sand). 相似文献
Unconsolidated mud clast breccia facies in the hominin-bearing (Homo naledi) Rising Star Cave, Cradle of Humankind, South Africa, are interpreted to have formed through a process termed sedimentary autobrecciation in this study. This process, by which most of the angular mud clast breccia deposits are thought to have formed autochthonously to para-autochthonously via a combination of erosion, desiccation, diagenesis and microbial alteration of laminated mud deposits, is thought to have taken place under relatively dry (i.e. non-flooded) conditions inside the cave. Subsequently, gravitational slumping and collapse was the dominant mechanism that produced the mud clast breccia deposits, which commonly accumulate into debris aprons. The mud clast breccia is typically associated with (micro) mammal fossils and is a common facies throughout the cave system, occurring in lithified and unlithified form. This facies has not been described from other cave localities in the Cradle of Humankind. Additionally, sedimentary autobrecciation took place during the deposition of some of the fossils within the Rising Star Cave, including the abundant Homo naledi skeletal remains found in the Dinaledi Subsystem. Reworking of the mud clast breccia deposits occurs in some chambers as they slump towards floor drains, resulting in the repositioning of fossils embedded in the breccias as evidenced by cross-cutting manganese staining lines on some Homo naledi fossil remains. The formation of the unlithified mud clast breccia deposits is a slow process, with first order formation rates estimated to be ca 8 × 10−4 mm year−1. The slow formation of the unlithified mud clast breccia facies sediments and lack of laminated mud facies within these deposits, indicates that conditions in the Dinaledi Chamber were probably stable and dry for at least the last ca 300 ka, meaning that this study excludes Homo naledi being actively transported by fluvial mechanisms during the time their remains entered the cave. 相似文献
The waning stage(s) of the Tethyan ocean(s) in the Balkans are not well understood. Controversy centres on the origin and life‐span of the Cretaceous Sava Zone, which is allegedly a remnant of the last oceanic domain in the Balkan Peninsula, defining the youngest suture between Eurasia‐ and Adria‐derived plates. In order to investigate to what extent Late‐Cretaceous volcanism within the Sava Zone is consistent with this model we present new age data together with trace‐element and Sr–Nd–Pb isotope data for the Klepa basaltic lavas from the central Balkan Peninsula. Our new geochemical data show marked differences between the Cretaceous Klepa basalts (Sava Zone) and the rocks of other volcanic sequences from the Jurassic ophiolites of the Balkans. The Klepa basalts mostly have Sr–Nd–Pb isotopic and trace‐element signatures that resemble enriched within‐plate basalts substantially different from Jurassic ophiolite basalts with MORB, BAB and IAV affinities. Trace‐element modelling of the Klepa rocks indicates 2%–20% polybaric melting of a relatively homogeneously metasomatised mantle source that ranges in composition from garnet lherzolite to ilmenite+apatite bearing spinel–amphibole lherzolite. Thus, the residual mineralogy is characteristic of a continental rather than oceanic lithospheric mantle source, suggesting an intracontinental within‐plate origin for the Klepa basalts. Two alternative geodynamic models are internally consistent with our new findings: (1) if the Sava Zone represents remnants of the youngest Neotethyan Ocean, magmatism along this zone would be situated within the forearc region and triggered by ridge subduction; (2) if the Sava Zone delimits a diffuse tectonic boundary between Adria and Europe which had already collided in the Late Jurassic, the Klepa basalts together with a number of other magmatic centres represent volcanism related to transtensional tectonics. 相似文献